By Jake McFarlin, MWBC Grain Trade Representative
With 2024 in the books, what will 2025 look like for the Montana wheat and barley producer? From the wheat side, we begin the year with multi-year low export figures, largely caused by historically high US dollar (USD) valuation. Barley trends are equally as dismal. US beer consumption is still working to recover from Covid with key demographics turning to alternatives.
Over the past 15 months, the USD has rallied nearly 10 percent adding to the cost of US exportable goods. The US wheat market must absorb this increase in cost resulting in decreased cash prices to the producer along with decreased export competitiveness abroad.
During the 2022-23 marketing season, we saw the Black Sea surge to the forefront of the world wheat export market showing their dedication to being the cheap wheat supplier to the world. The 2023-24 season seemed to be looking up as Russian weather conditions caused a nearly 30 percent decrease in production, followed by poor fall seeding conditions leaving them with a similar outlook for harvest of ’25. Although Russia has stepped back from their seemingly endless export push, we have seen other non-US origins happy to pick up the slack.
From the barley side, US beer consumption continues its downtrend. In 2023 US beer sales fell 5.1 percent and for the first time in more than 20 years more US breweries closed than opened.
Although I am struggling to find too much good news, 2025 may not be all doom and gloom. Russia is predicted to have similarly low production compared to 2024, US growing conditions are in relatively good shape and we continue build strong relationships with buyers abroad. If the US can get the USD under control we should be able to jump right back into some of the incremental export business we have been missing.
Jake McFarlin is the MWBC grain trade representative, serving since 2023. As the grain division manager for Mountain View Co-op, Jake leads a team that moves millions of bushels of Golden Triangle crops, including wheat and barley, around the globe. He offices out of their Dutton location.