Author: Sam Anderson
The last day of March is considered a holiday in our office as the awaited USDA prospective planting numbers are released. What will the planted acres be? Will Montana farmers plant more wheat and barley? Will the Bobcats beat Kansas State in the tournament? A year ago, wheat was $12, Black Sea conflicts and astronomical costs of production begged the bull outlook on air seeders punching in spring wheat, barley, and durum. We certainly planted more in the March report last year compared to the pervious 2021 planted acres.
The climate this year has lost steam. Lower commodity prices, lower input costs, lower export demand and the black sea has been shipping wheat more than anticipated. Yet all those factors could change in a minute. The market assumes wheat farmers attempt to make a half court shot each spring, not knowing how the market will be. For Montana farmers it’s more of a breakaway layup, we have over 12 different crops we can plant profitably, forward contracting, consistent trade partners, and a slightly positive weather outlook.
U.S. winter wheat plantings are up 11% while reports show Montana’s hard red winter wheat acres only increasing by 2% at 2.1 million acres. Look to see moderate changes in planted acres on the wheat and barley front in Montana. So here are my predictions compared to the 2022 USDA small grains annual summary.
2023:
Spring Wheat 3,000,000 Acres (up 11%)
Durum 650,000 Acres (Down 9%)
Barley 950,000 Acres (Down 8%)