– Sam Anderson
January 12th, 2023, the winter wheat seedings and grain stocks report was released. The market was anticipating a bump in US seeded acres. The report showed an 11% increase in U.S winter wheat acres over last year. 37 million acres (14.9 million hectares) are reported in the ground for 2023 crop versus 33.2 million acres (13.4 million hectares) in 2022.
Montana planted 2.1 million acres (850,206 hectares) for the 2023 crop up 2% from 2022 2 million acres (809,720 hectares).
A bit of trickery
The winter seeding report has left me in a puzzled state. At 10AM MST on January 12, 2023, the report was released. The title of the report says “U.S Winter Wheat Planted Acres Up 2 Percent”. The data suggests an 11% increase in planting. This misleading title led to a possible market bull moves that would be based on inaccuracies. When the MWBC staff quickly viewed the data at 10AM, I have no evidence for this, but I believe I saw the data representing a 2% increase as well. What happened USDA?
My investigation resulted in finding an error in the USDA winter seedings report. USDA was notified and the typo will be corrected. I only ask one thing like the famous trading places “Eddie Murphy rule”, please name this discovery the “Sam Anderson Typo Discovery Rule”.
Montana Cash prices moved up yesterday with this my perceived bear news.
Spring Wheat
Winter Wheat
Grain Stocks
According to the December 1 2022 Agricultural Survey and December Grain Stocks Report conducted by the Mountain Regional Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.
U.S:
Barley stored in all positions on December 1, 2022, totaled 114 million bushels, up 17 percent from December 1, 2021. On-farm stocks are estimated at 63.5 million bushels, 47 percent above a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 50.2 million bushels, are 7 percent below December 2021. The September – November 2022 indicated disappearance is 51.9 million bushels, 36 percent above the same period a year earlier.
All wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2022, totaled 1.28 billion bushels, down 7 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 362 million bushels, up 32 percent from last December. Off-farm stocks, at 918 million bushels, are down 17 percent from a year ago. The September – November 2022 indicated disappearance is 498 million bushels, 26 percent above the same period a year earlier.
Durum wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2022, totaled 48.1 million bushels, up 15 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 25.9 million bushels, are up 53 percent from December 1, 2021. Off-farm stocks totaled 22.2 million bushels, down 12 percent from a year ago. The September – November 2022 indicated disappearance of 5.66 million bushels is 41 percent above the same period a year earlier.
Montana:
Barley stocks in all positions on December 1, 2022, were 22.79 million bushels, up 26 percent from a year ago. Barley stored on farms totaled 16.00 million bushels, up 62 percent from last year. Off-farm barley storage was down 17 percent from a year ago to 6.79 million bushels.
All wheat stocks in Montana on December 1, 2022, were 97.06 million bushels, up 13 percent from December 1, 2021. All wheat stocks stored on farms amounted to 69.00 million bushels, up 28 percent from a year ago. All wheat stored off farms amounted to 28.06 million bushels, down 12 percent from a year ago.
Durum wheat stocks on December 1, 2022, were 13.95 million bushels, up 66 percent from a year ago. Durum wheat stocks stored on farms amounted to 11.50 million bushels and Durum wheat stored off farms amounted to 2.45 million bushels.
Montana’s on-farm storage capacity totaled 320.00 million bushels on December 1, 2022, unchanged from the December 1, 2021, estimate. Capacity of off-farm commercial grain storage in Montana totaled 90.00 million bushels on December 1, 2022, unchanged from December 1, 2021.
Both reports can be found here: